{"id":16708,"date":"2026-02-04T14:59:53","date_gmt":"2026-02-04T05:59:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/news.osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp\/?p=16708"},"modified":"2026-02-04T15:16:50","modified_gmt":"2026-02-04T06:16:50","slug":"12%e6%9c%88%e3%83%bb1%e6%9c%88%e3%81%ae%e7%a0%94%e7%a9%b6%e6%a5%ad%e7%b8%be","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp\/?p=16708","title":{"rendered":"12\u6708\u30fb1\u6708\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u696d\u7e3e"},"content":{"rendered":"

OSIPP\u57fa\u5e79\u8b1b\u5ea7\u6559\u54e1\u306e12\u6708\u30fb1\u6708\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u696d\u7e3e\u3092\u3054\u7d39\u4ecb\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u30fb\u5ddd\u7aaa\u60a6\u7ae0 \u5148\u751f\u3000\u3000\u30fb\u548c\u4ec1\u5065\u592a\u90ce \u5148\u751f\u3000
\n\u30fb\u9ad9\u7530\u967d\u5948\u5b50 \u5148\u751f\u3000\u30fb\u4e8c\u6749\u5065\u6597 \u5148\u751f\u3000
\n\u30fb\u8d64\u4e95\u4f38\u90ce \u5148\u751f<\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

Takafumi Kawakubo <\/strong>\uff08\u8ad6\u6587\uff09<\/p>\n

Nicholas Bloom, Takafumi Kawakubo, Charlotte Meng, Paul Mizen, Rebecca Riley, Tatsuro Senga, John Van Reenen “Do Well Managed Firms Make Better Forecasts?”
\nThe Review of Economics and Statistics<\/em>, accepted in November 2025.(\u67fb\u8aad\u3042\u308a\uff09
\nhttps:\/\/doi.org\/10.1162\/REST.a.1692<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Abstract: We link new forecast and management data on over 20,000 firms to data on productivity in manufacturing and services. The panel survey was administered in the UK in July 2017 and November 2020, coinciding with two periods of considerable uncertainty from Brexit and Covid. We find that better-managed firms make more accurate forecasts for firm level turnover and macro-level GDP. Uniquely, we show better-managed firms are also aware that they make more accurate forecasts and have greater confidence in their predictions. This highlights how superior forecasting ability enables well-managed firms to make improved operational and strategic choices.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

\u548c\u4ec1\u5065\u592a\u90ce <\/strong>\uff08\u5224\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\uff09<\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

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\u5317\u6751\u670b\u53f2\u30fb\u7530\u4e2d\u4f50\u4ee3\u5b50\u30fb\u82e5\u72ed\u5f70\u5ba4\u30fb\u85e4\u6fa4\u5dcc\u30fb\u68ee\u8087\u5fd7\u7de8\u300e\u56fd\u969b\u6cd5\u3067\u4e16\u754c\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308b\uff1a\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30b9\u3092\u8aad\u307f\u89e3\u304f33\u8b1b\u300f\u65b0\u7248\uff08\u5ca9\u6ce2\u66f8\u5e97\u30012025\u5e7412\u6708\uff09<\/strong>\uff08\u66f8\u7c4d\u306e\u5206\u62c5\u57f7\u7b46\uff09<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.iwanami.co.jp\/book\/b10153349.html<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\u9ad9\u7530\u967d\u5948\u5b50<\/strong>
\n\uff14.\u300c\u592b\u5a66\u5225\u59d3\u3092\u8a8d\u3081\u306a\u3044\u65e5\u672c\u306e\u6c11\u6cd5\u306f\u6761\u7d04\u9055\u53cd\uff1f\u2015\u2015\u56fd\u5185\u6cd5\u79e9\u5e8f\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u56fd\u969b\u6761\u7d04\u306e\u5b9f\u65bd\u300d34-43\u9801<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u548c\u4ec1\u5065\u592a\u90ce<\/strong>
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\u4e8c\u6749\u5065\u6597<\/strong>
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\u8d64\u4e95\u4f38\u90ce <\/strong>\uff08\u305d\u306e\u4ed6\u306e\u8a18\u4e8b\uff09<\/p>\n

\u300c\u65e5\u672c\u306e\u653f\u7b56\u652f\u3048\u308b\u8ca1\u6e90\u3069\u3053\u306b\uff1f\u300d\u300e\u5341\u5b57\u8def\u300f\u65e5\u672c\u7d4c\u6e08\u65b0\u805e\uff082025\u5e7412\u670811\u65e5\u4ed8\u5915\u520a\uff09<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\u8981\u65e8\uff1a\u5927\u578b\u306e\u65b0\u653f\u7b56\u304c\u898b\u8fbc\u307e\u308c\u308b\u3082\u306e\u306e\u3001\u305d\u306e\u8ca1\u6e90\u306f\u898b\u3048\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002\u30ac\u30bd\u30ea\u30f3\u95a2\u9023\u8af8\u7a0e\u306e\u66ab\u5b9a\u7a0e\u7387\u5ec3\u6b62\u30671\u51465000\u5104\u5186\u3001\u79c1\u7acb\u3092\u542b\u3081\u305f\u9ad8\u6821\u7121\u511f\u5316\u62e1\u5145\u30674000\u5104\u5186\u5fc5\u8981\u3060\u3002\u305d\u306e\u8ca1\u6e90\u306f\u3069\u3053\u304b\u3089\u751f\u307f\u51fa\u3059\u3079\u304d\u3060\u308d\u3046\u304b\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u306f\u3001\u6b73\u5165\u306e\u5897\u52a0\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u5927\u4f01\u696d\u3084\u5bcc\u88d5\u5c64\u3078\u306e\u8ab2\u7a0e\u5f37\u5316\u304c\u5019\u88dc\u3068\u306a\u308d\u3046\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u306f\u3001\u79df\u7a0e\u7279\u5225\u63aa\u7f6e\u306e\u7e2e\u6e1b\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u512a\u5148\u5ea6\u304b\u3089\u898b\u3066\u3001\u76ee\u6307\u3059\u52b9\u679c\u304c\u898b\u3048\u306b\u304f\u3044\u90e8\u5206\u306f\u898b\u76f4\u3057\u304c\u6c42\u3081\u3089\u308c\u3088\u3046\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\u306f\u3001\u6b73\u51fa\u306e\u7e2e\u6e1b\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u52b9\u7387\u6027\u3084\u52b9\u679c\u6027\u306e\u4e4f\u3057\u3044\u4e8b\u696d\u3092\u898b\u76f4\u3059\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308d\u3046\u3002\u6700\u5f8c\u306b\u3001\u8ca1\u6e90\u304c\u78ba\u4fdd\u3067\u304d\u306a\u3044\u5834\u5408\u306b\u983c\u308b\u306e\u304c\u56fd\u50b5\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3002\u56fd\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u306b\u306f\u6b73\u51fa\u306e\u5897\u52a0\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u5371\u6a5f\u611f\u304c\u9ad8\u307e\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u5b89\u6613\u306b\u56fd\u50b5\u306b\u983c\u308c\u3070\u3001\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u3084\u56fd\u5bb6\u8ca1\u653f\u306e\u4e0d\u5b89\u5b9a\u8981\u7d20\u304c\u5897\u3048\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u8ca1\u653f\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u5e02\u5834\u306e\u4fe1\u8a8d\u304c\u63fa\u3089\u3050\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308d\u3046\u3002\u3044\u3064\u3001\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u8ca0\u62c5\u3059\u308b\u306e\u304b\u3002\u30a8\u30d3\u30c7\u30f3\u30b9\u3092\u57fa\u306b\u3001\u900f\u660e\u6027\u306e\u3042\u308b\u8b70\u8ad6\u3092\u91cd\u306d\u3001\u56fd\u6c11\u304c\u7d0d\u5f97\u3067\u304d\u308b\u8ca1\u6e90\u78ba\u4fdd\u7b56\u306e\u63d0\u793a\u3092\u671f\u5f85\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

Takafumi Kawakubo <\/strong>\uff08Discussion Paper\uff09<\/p>\n

Kyoji Fukao, Tetsushi Horie, Tomohiko Inui, Takafumi Kawakubo, Young Gak Kim, Hyeog Ug Kwon, Hongyong Zhang \u201cOffshoring Bias in Productivity Estimates: Evidence from Japanese Customs Data\u201d
\nRIETI Discussion Paper Series 25-E-129, December 2025
\nhttps:\/\/www.rieti.go.jp\/jp\/publications\/summary\/25120027.html<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Abstract: This study examines the extent to which imported intermediate inputs lead to biased estimates of firm-level total factor productivity (TFP) growth, a phenomenon referred to as \u201coffshoring bias.\u201d To this end, we construct a novel firm-level dataset by linking the Japanese customs data with the financial information. We newly develop firm-specific import deflators at the granular Harmonized System 9-digit product level and use them to deflate import values. Comparing TFP estimates based on this approach with those based on commonly used industry-level deflators reveals that the conventional method tends to overestimate TFP growth. Moreover, our regression results indicate that the offshoring bias is more pronounced among firms with higher import shares. This suggests that conventional TFP estimation methods may systematically overestimate productivity growth for firms that rely to a greater extent on imported intermediate inputs.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

OSIPP\u57fa\u5e79\u8b1b\u5ea7\u6559\u54e1\u306e12\u6708\u30fb1\u6708\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u696d\u7e3e\u3092\u3054\u7d39\u4ecb\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002 \u30fb\u5ddd\u7aaa\u60a6\u7ae0 \u5148\u751f\u3000\u3000\u30fb\u548c\u4ec1\u5065\u592a\u90ce \u5148\u751f\u3000 \u30fb\u9ad9\u7530\u967d\u5948\u5b50 \u5148\u751f\u3000\u30fb\u4e8c\u6749\u5065\u6597 \u5148\u751f\u3000 \u30fb\u8d64\u4e95\u4f38\u90ce \u5148\u751f       Takafum …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":10416,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[8,12],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/news.osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Achievement-2.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16708"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16708"}],"version-history":[{"count":24,"href":"https:\/\/news.osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16708\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16732,"href":"https:\/\/news.osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16708\/revisions\/16732"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10416"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16708"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16708"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16708"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}