6月の研究業績

2024.7.4

OSIPP基幹講座教員の6月の研究業績をご紹介します。

・前川和歌子 先生　
・片桐梓 先生

Wakako Maekawa （論文）

Kana Inata and Wakako Maekawa “Violence or Nonviolence: The Impact of Public Opinion on Campaign Onset and Tactics,” Peace and Conflict Studies (2024), Vol. 30, No. 2, Article 3. https://nsuworks.nova.edu/pcs/vol30/iss2/3 （査読あり）

Abstract: Recent scholarship suggests that norms of nonviolent contestation strongly constrain the course of civil resistance campaigns. However, these norms are not uniform across countries. It may be the case that violent campaign groups may successfully mobilize supporters in societies where norms of nonviolent contestation are not established. This study seeks to answer whether campaign onset and tactics are influenced by public opinion, and if so, specifically what components of public opinion do so. We disaggregate public opinion into those on campaign tactics and campaign goals, and argue that public opinion on campaign goals affects the initiation of civil campaigns, while that on campaign tactics affects the peacefulness of a campaign. Using the AmericasBarometer and Afrobarometer, we demonstrate that high satisfaction with democracy, a proxy for public opinion on campaign goals, significantly reduces the likelihood of violent and nonviolent campaigns compared to no campaigns and that the public’s high violence aversion makes violent campaigns less likely compared to nonviolent campaigns.

片桐梓（著書）

「第8章　国際紛争」中溝和弥・佐橋亮編『世界の岐路をよみとく基礎概念──比較政治学と国際政治学への誘い』岩波書店（2024年6月20日刊行）https://www.iwanami.co.jp/book/b645170.html

概要：日常的に起こる国家間紛争が、なぜほとんどの場合平和裡に解決される一方で、稀に武力紛争（戦争）にまでエスカレートするのかという問題は、国際関係論という分野の中でも最も根源的な問いである。本稿では、過去のこの問いに関する理論的な研究動向を踏まえつつ、最近の実証研究の動向をレビューし、今後のリサーチアジェンダを見据えることを目的とした。